I’m hoping for another mic attack by Mihingarangi Forbes. She has (at least) twice made Seymour’s smirk freeze and once he practically ran away from her. The other journalists there were as awestruck as I was, and let her have the kill all to herself. Bliss. And very revealing.
There is the faintest if sunny rays in this piece. Thank you for writing it and publishing it here. I’ll be sharing as widely as possible. Staying vigilant around Seymour’s every move is exhausting but necessary. A fall, however fumbling or fabulously dramatic for Seymour would be an absolute delight for the 92% of us who can’t stand his arrogant libertarian bullshit and his over inflated righteousness. The sooner the wilderness of political obscurity swallows him whole the better. He thoroughly pollutes the uniqueness of our civil society and his policies, stunts and modus fail the sniff test at every turn. The same goes for those who have financed and him and authored his putrid propaganda. Their corporate agenda of wealth transfer is as relentless as it is repugnant. If Seymour does start taking some hits over the next 18 months let’s hope some of them are collateral damage.
Excellent analysis Ryan. Especially this bit: “[Seymour]has been given outsized influence in the coalition government either due to Luxon’s ineptitude as a Prime Minister, the fact the Luxon actually agrees with his agenda, or both”.
I see a close parallel between Luxon and Brash who came from the far far right crowd who, realising that an Act PM wasn’t possible, discreetly and very generously funded Brash into the National leadership on the understanding that after consolidating that leadership he would lead a very sharp right turn in his second term.
Luckily for us they were sprung by Nicky Hager.
We have already heard Luxon parrot (like Brash) “not in this term”.
I think that Luxon very much agrees with what Seymour is up to, but is not clever enough to manage the situation and keep his powder dry for the planned sharp right turn in his second term.
Love the optimism. My alarm is for what his unhingedness may do to NZ politics and if we may see the rising of a movement like in the UK — I think he might be ready to go full Farrage tbh. There’s a crush of culture war issues looking to coalesce over something and while they’re not working out in Seymour’s favour right now, that might not always be the case. I am hoping we will see a slow weakening of support for the extreme intolerance of this right wing government and not some event that allows Seymour to re-grasp the narrative and survive with his base in tatters but with a stronger bunch of radical supporters for it. 😬
I really hope not. The bad thing is that when things get bad economically people buy into these culture wars more. It’s a tricky balancing act between giving someone someone to hate and concealing the fact that you are responsible for their misery. National has to play that game but ACT can just ride the wave of discontent. I worry about this too. A lot.
If the Ausies can slap this shit down even with the weight of fossil fuel billionaires, the Murdoch media and supporters of Israel tipping in millions, then by god we kiwis can! Additionally, Aotearoa NZ MUST introduce compulsory voting.
Will restack this and share as widely as l can Ryan.. great read.. thank you 🙌🏻
I'm glad you found it useful. I agree, we can beat this, but we just have to cut through Seymour's spin. He's very good at crafting a narrative but I think people are starting to see through it.
I think (hope) you may be right - that if the Ozzies can do it, we can. But we have to motivate that huge tranche of non-voters to VOTE. It’s likely many of them don’t think they can make a difference.
That’s just it isn’t it.. a single simple vote.. so easy to do and to feel a part of something BIG.. something PRECIOUS.. is incredibly powerful and self affirming and by god it DOES make a difference. The message has to get out there and it has to scour. Chloe Swarbrick and young left wing leaders of her ilk are key. She’s brilliant, but she’s not the only one
Great analysis. Seems to me in politics there is saying and there is doing. Seymour is impressive in the saying - he is consistent in his messaging (no ambivalence about what he says he stands for) and operates as though he is in perpetual campaign mode (playing the media with a provocative statements). But when it comes to the doing, he has been largely incompetent in the core business of getting things done. The woeful inadequacy of implementing the school lunches program (and his defensive response to any critique from the sector) indicates he is pretty clueless when it comes to understanding how schools actually operate and what our kids need. NZ voters are pretty pragmatic and it is becoming clearer that Seymour does not have sort the practical political skills to actually deliver what he claims he can.
At some point, the 8% pigeon will come home to roost, exhausted. Whilst I’m very cognisant of Stephanie’s comment above, because never-say-never, I’m not yet convinced a full Farage flourish will eventuate here in New Zealand….yet. A lot depends on what happens post 2026. If New Zealand gets more of this Luxon lead crap or Neoliberal Chippy rocks on in, then all bets are off. And frankly, that is not just possible, it’s plausible.
However, that said, I believe Seymour is running out of ammo - mostly through his impossible to stomach smirking arrogance - and as a result, he is running short of firepower because, let’s face it, he’s a genuine, solid gold, arsehole. Even if Luxon ( big if) is re-elected and not rolled, weak and feckless as he is, the party will not allow him to make his amateur moves in coalition negotiations ever again. They now know beyond any doubt that Luxon cannot remotely deliver what he promises on his tin. His ‘I ran an airline’ mystique is done and dusted.
As a result, I think Seymour’s tenuous hold on power is rapidly diminishing, although he might put on his pink pants and do one final pirouette for his sad sack fans. In reality, it was only Luxon’s feeble and feckless leadership that facilitated Seymour’s ability to be a dangerous nuisance.
What’s next? Well, that worries me far more than ‘Dancing with Stars’ boy because New Zealand is running out of time to arrest its decline and there doesn’t appear to be a clear-eyed solution in sight.
I really hope you’re right. Luxon has stated they (Nats) will support the RSB and they haven’t shown signs of turning away from anything unpopular so far. They simply deflect, deny and/or lie as we’ve seen with the pay equity legislation, school lunches fiasco etc. it really is about controlling the narrative… I really hope you’re right that they will distance themselves but I won’t holding my breathe. The Andrea Vance article using the C word handed them the ultimate dead cat bounce. I wonder if she intended that…?
Thanks Ryan. Also worth noting that public health researchers internationally have documented evidence that tobacco industries have “metaregulation” a la RSB as a key strategy. No need to fight every bill or policy when the overarching framework defaults to no regulation of corporations. Very important to highlight the underlying motivations, and it’s definitely not the public interest
I believe we do have a VERY situated media. Seymour and Van Velden should be burned at the stake by real journalists. Unfortunately only Mihi Ngarangi -Forbes seems up to the task. Jack Tame attempts to at times but let Van Velden off the hook. These two politicians are vicious in their intent to destabilise Aotearoa and foment division where none exists.
Agree. I guess I was thinking it's not as explicitly propagandistic as in the US, but you're right, they should not be able to get away with what they do and say.
I’m hoping for another mic attack by Mihingarangi Forbes. She has (at least) twice made Seymour’s smirk freeze and once he practically ran away from her. The other journalists there were as awestruck as I was, and let her have the kill all to herself. Bliss. And very revealing.
There is the faintest if sunny rays in this piece. Thank you for writing it and publishing it here. I’ll be sharing as widely as possible. Staying vigilant around Seymour’s every move is exhausting but necessary. A fall, however fumbling or fabulously dramatic for Seymour would be an absolute delight for the 92% of us who can’t stand his arrogant libertarian bullshit and his over inflated righteousness. The sooner the wilderness of political obscurity swallows him whole the better. He thoroughly pollutes the uniqueness of our civil society and his policies, stunts and modus fail the sniff test at every turn. The same goes for those who have financed and him and authored his putrid propaganda. Their corporate agenda of wealth transfer is as relentless as it is repugnant. If Seymour does start taking some hits over the next 18 months let’s hope some of them are collateral damage.
Gotta look for breaks of sunshine in the clouds.
Hear hare!… here
Wonderful descriptors!😂
Superb! Is it time to name and shame his big business backers?
Excellent analysis Ryan. Especially this bit: “[Seymour]has been given outsized influence in the coalition government either due to Luxon’s ineptitude as a Prime Minister, the fact the Luxon actually agrees with his agenda, or both”.
I see a close parallel between Luxon and Brash who came from the far far right crowd who, realising that an Act PM wasn’t possible, discreetly and very generously funded Brash into the National leadership on the understanding that after consolidating that leadership he would lead a very sharp right turn in his second term.
Luckily for us they were sprung by Nicky Hager.
We have already heard Luxon parrot (like Brash) “not in this term”.
I think that Luxon very much agrees with what Seymour is up to, but is not clever enough to manage the situation and keep his powder dry for the planned sharp right turn in his second term.
Yes. I worry that a second term will see an attempt to end abortion access and curtail health care for women as has happened in a number of US states.
Love the optimism. My alarm is for what his unhingedness may do to NZ politics and if we may see the rising of a movement like in the UK — I think he might be ready to go full Farrage tbh. There’s a crush of culture war issues looking to coalesce over something and while they’re not working out in Seymour’s favour right now, that might not always be the case. I am hoping we will see a slow weakening of support for the extreme intolerance of this right wing government and not some event that allows Seymour to re-grasp the narrative and survive with his base in tatters but with a stronger bunch of radical supporters for it. 😬
I really hope not. The bad thing is that when things get bad economically people buy into these culture wars more. It’s a tricky balancing act between giving someone someone to hate and concealing the fact that you are responsible for their misery. National has to play that game but ACT can just ride the wave of discontent. I worry about this too. A lot.
If the Ausies can slap this shit down even with the weight of fossil fuel billionaires, the Murdoch media and supporters of Israel tipping in millions, then by god we kiwis can! Additionally, Aotearoa NZ MUST introduce compulsory voting.
Will restack this and share as widely as l can Ryan.. great read.. thank you 🙌🏻
I'm glad you found it useful. I agree, we can beat this, but we just have to cut through Seymour's spin. He's very good at crafting a narrative but I think people are starting to see through it.
I think (hope) you may be right - that if the Ozzies can do it, we can. But we have to motivate that huge tranche of non-voters to VOTE. It’s likely many of them don’t think they can make a difference.
That’s just it isn’t it.. a single simple vote.. so easy to do and to feel a part of something BIG.. something PRECIOUS.. is incredibly powerful and self affirming and by god it DOES make a difference. The message has to get out there and it has to scour. Chloe Swarbrick and young left wing leaders of her ilk are key. She’s brilliant, but she’s not the only one
Thanks Neville. I share your optimism.
Just like they did with Dutton. The emperor has no clothes!..
Great analysis. Seems to me in politics there is saying and there is doing. Seymour is impressive in the saying - he is consistent in his messaging (no ambivalence about what he says he stands for) and operates as though he is in perpetual campaign mode (playing the media with a provocative statements). But when it comes to the doing, he has been largely incompetent in the core business of getting things done. The woeful inadequacy of implementing the school lunches program (and his defensive response to any critique from the sector) indicates he is pretty clueless when it comes to understanding how schools actually operate and what our kids need. NZ voters are pretty pragmatic and it is becoming clearer that Seymour does not have sort the practical political skills to actually deliver what he claims he can.
I SO hope you are right.
We can only hope
See, that's the one place where I think you're wrong:
we can do a hell of a lot more than merely hope
and we'd bloody well better
- call AND write our MPs and complain loudly that it's an election-deciding issue
- write letters to the editor and to columns and fora like this saying the same
- talk with bloody everyone everywhere about it
... and most of all
- challenge everyone who would have liked to have joined in the Toitu te Tiriti march
and everyone who DID join in on the Toitu te Tiriti march
that this is much worse than the TPB so they ought to get on with getting into THIS as a new kaupapa to protect the future
* We made that go away so we know we can do it
but that was only created as a distraction from this
so all the more reason to get pissed off, staunch and strident
stat.!
This was a rhetorical hope. We can all do much more and your suggestions are a great place to start.
At some point, the 8% pigeon will come home to roost, exhausted. Whilst I’m very cognisant of Stephanie’s comment above, because never-say-never, I’m not yet convinced a full Farage flourish will eventuate here in New Zealand….yet. A lot depends on what happens post 2026. If New Zealand gets more of this Luxon lead crap or Neoliberal Chippy rocks on in, then all bets are off. And frankly, that is not just possible, it’s plausible.
However, that said, I believe Seymour is running out of ammo - mostly through his impossible to stomach smirking arrogance - and as a result, he is running short of firepower because, let’s face it, he’s a genuine, solid gold, arsehole. Even if Luxon ( big if) is re-elected and not rolled, weak and feckless as he is, the party will not allow him to make his amateur moves in coalition negotiations ever again. They now know beyond any doubt that Luxon cannot remotely deliver what he promises on his tin. His ‘I ran an airline’ mystique is done and dusted.
As a result, I think Seymour’s tenuous hold on power is rapidly diminishing, although he might put on his pink pants and do one final pirouette for his sad sack fans. In reality, it was only Luxon’s feeble and feckless leadership that facilitated Seymour’s ability to be a dangerous nuisance.
What’s next? Well, that worries me far more than ‘Dancing with Stars’ boy because New Zealand is running out of time to arrest its decline and there doesn’t appear to be a clear-eyed solution in sight.
Agree. The dangerous nuisance is on Luxon
I really hope you’re right. Luxon has stated they (Nats) will support the RSB and they haven’t shown signs of turning away from anything unpopular so far. They simply deflect, deny and/or lie as we’ve seen with the pay equity legislation, school lunches fiasco etc. it really is about controlling the narrative… I really hope you’re right that they will distance themselves but I won’t holding my breathe. The Andrea Vance article using the C word handed them the ultimate dead cat bounce. I wonder if she intended that…?
Oh yes she did - operating under orders from National HQ I reckon
I'm picking when he takes the Deputy Leadership off Winston, that will be the time things start to disintegrate for Seymour.
He will get too cocky and Winston will do all in his power to STOP Seymour in his tracks.
JM2CW.
I have very high hopes of that along with a concern that Winston will be king maker yet again
Thanks Ryan. Also worth noting that public health researchers internationally have documented evidence that tobacco industries have “metaregulation” a la RSB as a key strategy. No need to fight every bill or policy when the overarching framework defaults to no regulation of corporations. Very important to highlight the underlying motivations, and it’s definitely not the public interest
Yes. Tobacco companies have taken legal action against countries for trying to regulate in the interests of the public.
I believe we do have a VERY situated media. Seymour and Van Velden should be burned at the stake by real journalists. Unfortunately only Mihi Ngarangi -Forbes seems up to the task. Jack Tame attempts to at times but let Van Velden off the hook. These two politicians are vicious in their intent to destabilise Aotearoa and foment division where none exists.
Agree. I guess I was thinking it's not as explicitly propagandistic as in the US, but you're right, they should not be able to get away with what they do and say.
We sure hope so