My letter to Jacinda or: How the left can learn to stop worrying and love economic populism

After the 2020 Labour election win I wrote a letter to the Prime Minister. This was my first letter ever to a politician. I’d signed some petitions in the past but had never directly engaged an elected representative.

My letter (included in full at the bottom of the post) was written to urge Ardern to use the mandate she had won to govern boldly and in a way that would reverse some of the worst damage done by the adoption of neoliberal policy over the last 40 years. I warned her that if she didn’t, the political right stood to make significant gains.

Fast forward four years later and we’re all reeling from a National coalition government that is taking a wrecking ball to what’s left of the social safety net and licking its chops at the thought of mass privatisation of public services.

Meanwhile the US just gambled on a second Trump administration, an outcome that has scandalized Democrats and the liberal establishment, while the most poor and marginalized are left to see just how much they will be used, abused, and kicked to the curb this time around.

I’m not some kind of prophet. Just a guy who’s a bit too obsessed with politics. This prognostication doesn’t require even breaking out the tea let alone reading the leaves. All the telltale signs were there. Increasing wealth inequality. Increasing racism and discrimination. Everything pointed to a swing back to the right in 2023 unless Ardern had the political courage and will to make substantive reforms.

She didn’t, content to tinker around the edges. Worse, in the lead-up to the election, Chris Hipkins made clear that he had no plans to change anything. Labour’s “no GST on produce” platform was a laughing stock, and when he made a captain’s call to rule out a capital gains tax, throwing his party into disarray and leading to the resignation of his revenue minister, the game was up. Although Labour faced some pretty strong headwinds to win that election, that was the moment they lost it for sure. Against a dog-whistling campaign characterised by “law and order”, “fiscal restraint”, “co-governance”, and “personal responsibility” rhetoric, Labour’s offer of the status quo didn’t have a chance.

Over in the US, now the Dems are the ones reeling, having been routed by the right in another Trump election. What happened? Surely the American public is just too racist and sexist to elect a black woman president. Surely all those people telling pollsters that despite the unqualified success of Bidenomics their lives weren’t materially better were lying. At the end of the day all these people would just hold their noses and vote for Harris, right?

Wrong. Trump’s election has underscored two things. First, there is a fundamental disconnect between aggregate measures of the “economy” and the quality of life and flourishing of the general public. The old adage of “it’s the economy stupid” is true but as the share of wealth shifts ever more to a smaller percentage of the population, the general economic indicators are less and less representative of the well-being of the majority of the public.

Second, when economic conditions are bad, right-wing populists can appeal (even more) to the segments of the electorate that are most precarious with racism and culture wars. The right-wing media machine has made a lucrative science out of this fact.

So, when we consider both these realities and the fact that elections, both in the US and here in Aotearoa are decided by slim margins, it becomes obvious that the entrenched neoliberal regime which is championed by both the nominal left and the right is leading to disproportionately worsening electoral prospects for the left. Only a significant policy shift can reverse the gains from the right.

What should that policy shift be? All political indicators suggest that doubling down hard on economic populism is a winning strategy. In the US, the continued popularity of Bernie Sanders, whose political platform is characterised by unabashed economic populism and class struggle rhetoric, underscores this point. He would have likely beat Trump in 2016 and in the most recent election. Furthermore, a 2024 poll of Pennsylvania voters’ responses to different Harris campaign messages found strong support for an economic populist message.

Crucially, this line of messaging outperformed any other Democratic messaging strategy, including the “Trump threat to democracy” message that Dems relied on towards the end of the campaign.

Despite this clear advantage to an economic populist message, a detailed analysis of everything Harris said over the course of her campaign definitively showed her moving away from a more economic populist messaging strategy.

Our analysis reveals that the Harris campaign pivoted away from the economy starting around mid-September, de-emphasizing policies that she had previously advocated and moving away from an adversarial stance toward elites. This parallels investigative reporting, which finds that the last weeks of the campaign were increasingly directed by the very same corporate interests that she abstained from criticizing.

In addition to decreasing her economic populist messaging, Harris increased her rhetoric around Trump as a threat to democracy, the worst performing message in her arsenal. Summarizing the implications of their findings, the authors said

We don’t doubt that the Harris campaign was seriously constrained by these and other factors — including her ties to an unpopular incumbent. But it’s also true that all Democratic candidates in tight races were tainted by voters’ dissatisfaction with the status quo, yet many of them substantially outperformed Harris, especially those like Gabe Vasquez (New Mexico’s 2nd Congressional District) and Marcy Kaptur (Ohio’s 9th Congressional District) who doubled down on economic populism during the campaign.

While there were no doubt many factors in Harris’s loss (Gaza deserves its own post) it is an indisputable fact that her chances would have been greatly improved by a focus on an economic populist message and policy platform. The US public had learned during the COVID pandemic that the levers of government could be rapidly deployed to ease economic pain and improve quality of life, and then just as quickly these material gains were erased by the Biden/Harris administration. They remembered in the voting booth (or didn’t bother turning up).

What of the prospects for the left here in Aotearoa? Labour’s status quo was rejected in the last election, but it’s also clear that voters were not anticipating the kind of change the coalition government is giving them. Accordingly, the recent Labour conference was a time to take stock.

Unsurprisingly given the recent polling indicating a large majority of the public supports some kind of redistributive tax policy, Labour has announced that a capital gains tax and a wealth tax may be back on the policy agenda.

Also unsurprisingly, there are already those who are cautioning Labour to pull back on their grandiose ambitions, or suffer an electoral wipeout in 2026. Better to focus on “Growing the size of our national cake.” In other words, more of the same tired neoliberal policy that both Labour and National have championed for the past 40 years. More upwards wealth transfer, more wealth inequality, more suffering for the most vulnerable.

Here’s the thing. An expansionist economic agenda will do little to help the poor and working class without a mechanism to redistribute wealth. That’s the end of it. No amount of talk of economic growth or job creation will help anyone but the richest if systemic policy changes are not implemented. Trickle down economics has been thoroughly debunked. Even in times of large infusions of government money into the economy, as happened during the COVID pandemic, the policy structure results in grossly disproportionate gains for the already wealthy.

If Labour is to have any chance of winning in 2026, they must become more economically populist, not less. The public has an appetite for substantial socio-political change, despite the protestations of Peter Dunne. Could it be that the public is waking to the fact that they have been taken for a 40 year ride? Just maybe people who are suffering through a cost of living crisis in which half the price increase attributed to inflation is due to corporate greed are realizing that the current economic program is really not helping them.

Now is the time for bold political action. Tinkering around the edges only opens Labour up to the kind of culture-war politics that the coalition government employed to win the last election. Although the public is increasingly disillusioned with Luxon’s circus of buffoonery and naked greed, there are still two more years for something to change. Labour has to offer something substantive, not a return to the status quo, and not merely a choice between the better of two evils. Only this strategy will result in a workable left politics now and into the future.

The Right Honourable Jacinda Ardern

Prime Minister of New Zealand

Parliament Buildings

Private Bag 18041

Wellington 6160

November 27, 2020

Dear Prime Minister,

I wanted to first express my sincere gratitude for the way you and your government have handled the COVID-19 pandemic. As an expat from the US, I can only watch in horror at the abject failure of that government’s response to their situation. Your clear communication and rapid, evidence-based response has been a bright light in the world during this pandemic.

Second, I want to congratulate your government on your decisive and strong election win. This win, was, no doubt, a strong embrace of your compassionate style of governance and the handling of the pandemic. It has put you in the position to be able to govern alone, which is an incredible opportunity.

I am writing to urge you to please use the political capital you have gained over the past few years to enact much-needed progressive reform. I understand your win would not have been possible without the support of many former National voters, and I understand your desire to keep them in your camp. But I also feel that staying in the centre lane this term will be a recipe for continued inequality and suffering and will lead to political troubles.

I was recently concerned to read of the increasing wealth gap here in New Zealand. As you will also know, there is an increased incidence of racism, conspiracy theorism, and fringe political views. While these two things may seem unrelated, the increased support for more right-leaning political parties this election I think speaks to a growing dissatisfaction of the working class with both centre left and centre right politics that do little to improve their lives.

This same scenario has played out in the US over the past 40 years. Deregulation and policy that has prioritised corporate profits and open markets has hollowed out the middle class and paved the way for the election of Trump in 2016 and the inflammation of racial and other political tensions. If the economic inequality in New Zealand continues to grow, as it seems it will under current conditions, this will open the door to an authoritarian political strategy that can coalesce around an aggrieved working class by explicitly targeting and blaming economic hardship on “others” such as immigrants and racial minorities, leading to further division and strife.

I fear that without swift and decisive action to redistribute wealth and prevent its continued accrual to the already-wealthy, the majority of New Zealanders will be left behind. Piecemeal reforms will not lead to sustainable gains if the fundamental wealth inequality is not addressed. Many, if not most of the issues in the country, such as poverty, difficulty entering the housing market, the exorbitant costs of exported goods (like dairy products) that are shifted back onto New Zealanders, healthcare shortages and inequities, among others, are symptomatic of this underlying cause. If it is not addressed, conditions will be ripe for fringe political groups to strongly appeal with conspiracy theories and racism. The National party is already dabbling in this brand of politics, and seems to be increasingly modelling itself after the US Republican party. It also seems likely that more right-leaning political parties will continue to amass support with the general public. We need only look to the US for the cautionary tale on where this leads.

Your government is in a unique position to address this situation. I urge you to use your influence and power at this time to enact progressive taxation and taxes on capital gains, as well as to curb foreign investment and to introduce sustainable green infrastructure and jobs.

The ongoing economic recovery is already disproportionately favouring the wealthy, and it is the rest of us that will suffer the protracted economic effects of the pandemic. Your government has a once in a generation opportunity to transform the country for good. Please use your well-earned trust and reputation to bring along and support the entire team of 5 million. I believe the future of the country depends on it.

Most respectfully,

Ryan